Manipur BJP MLA Paolienlal Haokip in his interview at Karan Thapar’s show says that the refugee numbers from Myanmar are not much. He tells “those are not even in thousands Karan. Those are in hundreds” [watch 22:30-22:50 minutes].
In 21 June, NDTV published numbers of refugees living in different districts of Manipur from a report by the Cabinet Sub-Committee(CSC) on identification of Illegal immigrants headed by Manipur Minister Letpao Haokip, another BJP member. It says “the initial findings of 1st Phase of identification exercise as on 24.04.2023” gives us the numbers of refugees as 2187. The table published in NDTV is the following:
In a June 22, 2023 Times of India article, quoting a report by IGP (Intelligence, Narcotics and Affairs of Borders), said that 2480 Myanmar refugees in Manipur were detected after the Military Junta takeover. It said 1147 were detected in Tengnoupal, 1175 in Chandel, 154 in Churachandpur and 4 in Kamjong. IGP (Intelligence, Narcotics and Affairs of Border), Times of India claims, is also part of the Cabinet Sub-Committee.
Before the violence, in an 3rd April 2023 article published in The Print, Minister Letpao Haokip is reported to have said that there are around 4000-5000 refugees who have come to Manipur from Myanmar since the 2021 coup given the intensification of air raid in Burmese townships bordering India. Some 1600 are in Chandel and another 3000 are in Tengnoupal, according to Minister Haokip. It was decided by the government that two camps would be built: One at Haolenphai village in Tengnoupal and another at Gamphazol village in Chandel, according to the report.
Karan Thapar told Bimol Akoijam that “the number of Burmese sheltering in Manipur is probably 3000 or 4000 at the most…. the infiltration from Burma into Manipur is probably in couple of thousands, that was said to me by Mr. Haokip who is a BJP MLA” [watch 39:50-40: 35].
Last year, Ninglun Hanghal and Makepeace Sitlhou, in their December 2022 article, “Mizoram’s Predicament over Myanmar Refugee,” write:
“As of 1 June [2022], the UNHCR in India estimated a total of 39,790 Myanmar nationals in Manipur, where they have not been registered officially, and Mizoram. Of these, 30,342 were in Mizoram, as of 25 June. More than 13,000 people have been living in 160 refugee camps in Mizoram, according to state government estimates.”
They imply that around 9000 refugee from Myanmar are in Manipur by mid-2022.
[See https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/100585%5D
Nandita Haksar, in her June 20 article in Scroll.in, writes:
“Since the military coup in 2021 there has been an influx of refugees into Manipur and Mizoram. There are no exact figures, but various reports suggest the number of Chin refugees living in Manipur to be between 4,000 and 10,000. These people are mostly living in Churachandpur, Chandel and Kangpokpi districts of Kuki tribe-inhabited areas in Manipur.”
It seems Haksar provides an estimate between 4000-10000 using all the data circulated in the media. Other than MLA Paolienlal’s initial numbers in hundreds, every other number is included in Haksar’s range.
By the end of March 2023, Radio Free Asia reports that “Manipur state has seen 10000 refugees flood into the area, fleeing fighting.” The report states that Indian parliamentarians and Manipur state government officials visited the villages where refugees are taking shelter in Moreh. It says “they plan to build three or four camps across the border from the Myanmar town of Tamu and about two miles away from the Indian town of Moreh. Each camp will be able to house about 5000 refugees, and refugees will be required to stay in the camps- not in nearby Indian villages.
The recent UNHCR report shows that the refugees numbers in Manipur and Mizoram has increased to 540000 by May 8, 2023. Moreover, till May 2023, reports are coming that in official records of Mizoram state 40000 refugees are sheltered.
[See https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/100585%5D
So, are there more 14000 Myanmar nationals seeking refuge now in Manipur if we take these estimates seriously? Who knows!
People should stop throwing random numbers at us without any concerns for the implications. Instead, they must properly investigate what is going on and why the media is publishing and accepting any number.
Lastly, I must clarify humane treatment is a must for those fleeing persecution and violence from anywhere. Humanity precedes everything even in the darkest hours, However, clarity on number of people we need to take care also matters.
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